RESEARCH-BACKED INDEX

Jeweler TrustIndex

A multi-layer trust barometer for Turkey's $13.9B jewelry ecosystem. Built on TÜİK's revised DG ECFIN methodology, the McMillanDoolittle RBT scoring model, and 19 peer-reviewed academic sources.

19 Academic Sources3-Layer ArchitectureARMA/GARCH Engine

Turkey Market Intelligence

$13.9B
Market Size (2024)
Vyana Intelligence
44t
Gold Demand (2024)
World Gold Council
35K+
Retail Points
Kuyumcukent
250t
Bank Gold Deposits
TCMB

Multi-Layer Index Architecture

LAYER IHigh Weight

Macro Expectations & Investment Tendency

Inflation outlook, gold price trend, and household spending intent on precious metals — measured through TÜİK's revised DG ECFIN methodology.

Inflation expectation indexGold price trajectory correlationDurable goods spending intent
TÜİK Consumer Confidence (post-2020 revision), TCMB EVDS
LAYER IIHigh Weight

Institutional Trust & Transaction Transparency

Assay guarantee, certification validity, pricing transparency, brand heritage, and chamber membership — scored using the Retail Brand Trust (RBT) methodology.

Net Trust Score (Advocates − Cynics)Assay & certification verificationHeritage & chamber standing
McMillanDoolittle RBT, İKO, Chamber registries
LAYER IIIFlexible Weight

Online Security & Logistics

Secure payment infrastructure, data privacy compliance, breach penalty scoring, and insured delivery — modeled on the Retail Trust Index (RTI) penalty system.

Data breach penalty scorePayment security certificationInsured delivery compliance
Empathy.co RTI, Ethical Commerce Alliance, TDWI DIQ

Trust Barometer (0-100)

80-100
60-79
40-59
20-39
0-19

Computed via ARMA(p,q) time-series models with ARCH-LM heteroskedasticity correction for seasonal variance (wedding season demand spikes, holiday effects). Values above 50 indicate sector-wide optimism and transparency; values below 50 signal inflationary fears or systemic distrust.

Turkish Consumer Segmentation

Source: İstanbul Kuyumcular Odası (İKO) & Areda Research (2014)

Psychographic Segments

34%
Price Hunters
Rational investors tracking gold rate
20%
Trend Followers
Design and fashion driven
19%
Brand Focused
Heritage and reputation seekers
14%
Pragmatists
Value-for-money shoppers
13%
Prestige Seekers
Status and luxury oriented

Payment Channels

Cash Transactions78%
Credit Card15%
E-Commerce4.9%
Affected by Installment Limits27%

The dominance of cash transactions (78%) and low e-commerce penetration (4.9%) reflect the deeply physical, trust-dependent nature of Turkish jewelry commerce.

Academic Foundation

1

Consumer Buying Behaviour and Trust towards Online Jewellery Shopping

ResearchGate

2

The Biases that Influence Jewellery Purchasing Decisions

IJFMR

3

Jewelry Design and Consumer Connection Analysis

Darcy & Roy Press

4

Perceived Risk and Trust in Online Gemstone Purchasing (USA)

Murdoch University

5

TÜİK Consumer Confidence Index — Major Methodological Revision

TÜİK

6

Sectoral Confidence Indices (Dec 2021)

TÜİK

7

Trust Index Components and Economic/Financial Indicators Interaction

İstanbul Ticaret Üni.

8

Retail Brand Trust Index: Consumer Trust Perception

McMillanDoolittle

Full bibliography includes 19 peer-reviewed sources spanning behavioral economics, Turkish market surveys, and international retail trust methodologies.

Pilot Program — Q3 2026

We are partnering with select industry players and chamber associations for the pilot rollout. Join the waitlist for priority access to the live barometer.

Join Pilot

Methodology

The Jeweler Trust Index is a composite barometer synthesizing macroeconomic consumer confidence signals (TÜİK Consumer Confidence Index, post-September 2020 DG ECFIN revision), institutional trust metrics (Retail Brand Trust scoring via McMillanDoolittle's NPS-derived methodology), and digital commerce safety indicators (Empathy.co RTI penalty architecture). Seasonal variance from wedding season demand spikes and holiday effects is controlled through ARMA(p,q) time-series modeling with ARCH-LM heteroskedasticity testing. Turkey-specific market data is sourced from the World Gold Council (Gold Demand Trends), İstanbul Kuyumcular Odası (İKO consumer survey with Areda Research), TÜİK EVDS monthly bulletins, and Kuyumcukent industry reports. The index does not constitute financial advice.