Introduction
Markets may be closed, but the global risk map has never been this dense. As the US-Israel-Iran conflict enters its third week since February 28, the shockwaves have reached everywhere: from energy markets to the Turkish lira, from gold vaults to Dubai skyscrapers. In this weekend analysis, we examine the 5 critical developments you need to know before you sit down at your desk Monday morning, and their direct impact on Turkey.
1. Strait of Hormuz & the Oil Shock
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. 21% of global oil transit and 27% of LNG shipments flowed through this narrow passage. According to the IEA, this is the largest supply disruption in global oil market history.
Brent crude chronology:
Gulf nations have collectively lost at least 10 million barrels per day of production. Analysts warn that if disruptions persist, Brent could surpass the 2008 record of $147.50, with worst-case scenarios reaching $200.
Turkey Impact
Turkey imports approximately two-thirds of its energy needs. 20% of its crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
2. Gold: Safe-Haven Rally & Pullback
Spot gold hit an intraday record of $5,420/oz on March 9. However, by March 14 it had pulled back to ~$5,032 (-3%). Gram gold in Turkey traded at TRY 7,136-7,690 on March 15.
Three reasons for the pullback:
- Strong US dollar (DXY above 100.40)
- Rising US Treasury yields (10-year ~4.29%)
- Institutional profit-taking
Investment bank targets:
According to the World Gold Council, gold has historically delivered an average 7.5% return in the six months following major geopolitical events.
3. CBRT Defense Line
The Central Bank of Turkey spent $25 billion in 10 days defending the lira. In one week alone, it sold $12 billion (15% of its foreign currency reserves).
Policy moves: The CBRT held rates at 37% and halted its rate-cutting cycle. Weekly repo auctions were suspended. A TRY-settled FX forwards facility was introduced. While USD/TRY hit a record high, CBRT interventions made the lira one of the best-performing EM currencies in the March 4-11 period, declining only 0.1% against the dollar.
4. Inflation Pressure Mounting
February 2026 CPI data paints a concerning picture:
Continued energy price increases make cost-push inflation nearly impossible to control. This environment strengthens the classic "double-layer" effect that causes gram gold to outperform ounce gold in TRY terms (ounce appreciation + currency weakening).
5. Dubai Real Estate: Safe Haven or Risk?
The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) real estate index fell 30% in two weeks post-conflict, erasing all of the year's gains. Strikes were reported near Dubai International Airport, the Burj Al Arab, and the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC).
Yet historically, capital flows *into* Dubai during periods of regional instability. The city recorded $250 billion in property transactions in 2025 and a 44% YoY increase in January 2026.
Contradictory signals:
- Mid-market buyers (AED 1.5-4M) in "wait-and-watch" mode
- High-net-worth individuals channeling capital from conflict zones into Dubai
- 131,000+ residential units expected for delivery in 2026 (supply pressure)
- Emaar founder: "15% correction expectation is very unrealistic"
Watch List for Next Week
- CBRT rate decision: Hold or further tightening signal?
- Brent crude: Will it drop below $100, or is the Hormuz premium permanent?
- Gold technicals: If $5,200 resistance breaks, $5,420 target revives
- US inflation data: Will shape Fed rate expectations
- Hormuz diplomacy: Any ceasefire talks on the horizon?
Sources: IEA, CBRT, Bloomberg, Reuters, TradingEconomics, WHO, World Gold Council, Middle East Eye.
Legal Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult licensed investment advisors before making investment decisions.